Since Sergio Aguero has been out injured and Gabriel Jesus has also had inconsistent health, Pep Guardiola has put his considerable football genius and no shortage of madness into full effect.
No striker? No problem, for Pep’s City as they have deployed a number of different players in an attacking false 9 arrangement, including Kevin De Bruyne as the most obvious option, who has since been ruled out for a while.
İlkay Gündoǧan is the newest iteration of the midfield creator turned lethal attacking disruptor and goalscorer, but has he always had it in him to perform well above his expected goals (xG)?
Where did it all start?
Gündoǧan made his debut for second tier German side Nürnberg in their promotion winning season in 2008/09 and went on to garner much attention over the next two years.
In 2011 Borussia Dortmund came calling and Gündoǧan was able to demonstrate his talents on a more global stage.
He quickly established himself as one of the Bundesliga’s top number 8’s, his industry and creativity in the middle key in Dortmund’s surge to a Bundesliga title and Champion’s League run.
His game is built mainly around simplicity, with his number of passes completed over long distance totalling at around a sixteenth of that of his shorter-range passes, as is common for a more box to box midfielder.
Statistically, this season has been wildly unexpected for someone who has never returned more than ten goals and assists combined in a season.
Statistics do not paint anything near the full picture of Gündoǧan’s attacking creative ability, however given his nature as more of a number 8 than a number 10. Carrying the ball out of his team’s half and keeping momentum going in attacks was the key to the attacking productivity of more advanced players like Marco Reus and Henrick Mkhitaryan.
This value will have been no secret to Guardiola who will have experienced it first-hand as manager of Bayern Munich and he made Gündoǧan one of his first acquisitions upon joining City.
Why the sudden statistical productivity?
Basketball and Hockey have realised the value behind the assist-for-the-assist, the pass played directly before the pass from which a point/goal is scored and if this statistic was more prominent in football you can bet that Gündoǧan would have a pretty impressive record.
The way City have played this season is fully indicative of the more positionless way of playing football that has come about recently. This season since their early slump and the loss of Aguero they have been a nightmare match-up because of the fact that opposition teams do not know who to pick up at any one time.
City, operate with what is, on paper, a back four a lot of the time, with Joao Cancelo listed on either flank but in reality – particularly in possession – this turns into a three with Cancelo being found anywhere across midfield. The lack of recognised striker does not hurt City as they operate with less of a false-9 but more of a selection of false-9’s at any given time.
Throughout this imperious run of form; Gündoǧan, Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus can be found occupying midfield positions in one moment, and popping up through the middle in attack the next.
This fluidity (given protection by Rodri sitting deep) provides each player with the freedom to roam and press in short bursts, giving the opposition a different challenge with each component.
This season the main beneficiary from this system has been Gündoǧan, whose industry and lung-busting runs have found him arriving late to put home crosses á la Lampard, Touré et al.
The Ringer and Stadio’s Ryan Hunn referred to Gündoǧan as being the best number 8 and 9 in the league simultaneously on present form and it is hard to disagree, his midfield play has been as exemplary as ever and he has (at present) an astonishing 11 league goals to his name.
This form will surely slow down at some point but do not bet against him being a player of the season contender come the end of May. Gündoǧan’s form may be statistically unexpected but it is no fluke, his ability to launch attacks has borne fruit further up the pitch this season. With Pep once again evolving to the needs of modern football, only bad fortune seems able to stop both City and their talisman from going all the way.
By Michael Vince